Is Elon Musk really buying twitter?

Anyone who is familiar with the event of taking twitter private in order to make it a free speech, crypto social media, knows that this journey has been crazy. But it seems like it is really happening. Elon’s lawyers sent this notice to twitter corp (1) saying quote

we write to notify you that the Musk Parties intend to proceed to closing of the transaction contemplated by the April 25, 2022 Merger Agreement, on the terms and subject to the conditions set forth therein and pending receipt of the proceeds of the debt financing contemplated thereby, provided that the Delaware Chancery Court enter an immediate stay of the action, Twitter vs. Musk, et al. (C.A. No. 202-0613-KSJM) (the “Action”) and adjourn the trial and all other proceedings related thereto pending such closing or further order of the Court.

Or in regular English terms, we will close the deal so long as you drop your lawsuit. Twitter corp has tweeted that they got the notice and has agreed to it (correction: I optimistically referred to this as agreeing to the deal when they really are just stating that they are acting to close the deal. Musk and Twitter corp are in a standstill as to who will act first as of october 6th.) (2) saying quote

We received the letter from the Musk parties which they have filed with the SEC. The intention of the Company is to close the transaction at $54.20 per share.

So is it really happening? I cannot say for certainty, however I can look at some statistics. Yahoo finance shows a stock price of $52 dollars (3) just look at that line.

the closer the stock price is trading to the acquisition price, the more likely that investors believe that it will go through. Because they are betting their money, we can expect that their opinion is well researched. The markets are saying that this will happen with only a small chance that it won’t. At this point I don’t see how Elon could curve ball this, but I guess we will just have to wait and see.

Sources used in the order that they were used 1.https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418091/000110465922105787/tm2227435d1_ex99-s.htm 2.https://twitter.com/TwitterIR/status/1577380758192197632 3.https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TWTR/